While Vice President Kamala Harris will likely carry the popular vote over former President Donald Trump next month in the race for the White House, whether she wins the Electoral College is the great unknown, conservative commentator William Kristol said Thursday evening.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a very close race. I think it is as tight as it seems,鈥 Kristol told an audience of 150 at Filene Auditorium, with another 110 watching via livestream, as part of 线上赌场鈥檚 2024 Election Speaker Series, co-sponsored by the and 线上赌场 Dialogues.
Kristol served in both the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and in 1995 founded The Weekly Standard, which became a bible of sorts for the mainstream conservative movement. He is now an editor-at-large with the Never Trump site The Bulwark and also the founding director of Defending Democracy Together, an organization devoted to safeguarding America鈥檚 liberal democratic norms, principles, and institutions.
On the whole, Kristol, who left the Republican Party in opposition to a Trump candidacy and presidency and who is supporting Harris for president, was relatively sanguine about the U.S.鈥檚 ability to withstand a second Trump term on the domestic front because of the traditional guardrails of the Constitution and the judiciary.
鈥淚 think you could argue that domestically we still have a lot of guardrails,鈥 Kristol said. It鈥檚 Trump鈥檚 possible effect on foreign policy that concerns him.
鈥淚n foreign policy, the president has much more power. He has huge discretion on the use of force,鈥 which could shape Trump鈥檚 policy toward Ukraine, NATO, Iran and Israel, with the potential to radically alter what has been a fairly consistent, internationalist American foreign policy.
The transformation of the Republican Party into a Trump party is partly a case of Trump giving voice to the more isolationist, xenophobic strands of the GOP, Kristol said.
鈥淭he recessive genes in the Republican Party have now emerged as the dominant genes. You can say it was always there. Part of politics in a huge country like ours鈥攚hen you don鈥檛 get to tell every single person in the party what to believe鈥攊s keeping the recessive genes recessive,鈥 Kristol said.
The current manifestation of the Republican Party could do severe damage, even if it is not irrevocable damage, Kristol said, pointing to Trump鈥檚 incendiary language on immigration and vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance鈥檚 controversial prescriptions for and descriptions of American women.
鈥淥nce you unleash all these passions and the grievances and anxieties and rhetoric, it鈥檚 very hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube. More people get used to it, and some people even like it,鈥 Kristol said, alluding to the recent slurs about Haitian immigrants in Ohio. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not funny, demonizing a small and recent immigrant group. We鈥檝e had this before in American history.鈥
One of the unfortunate outcomes of such political turmoil is that 鈥済ood people leave politics,鈥 Kristol added.
Kristol said that Harris has run a largely effective campaign. In the debate with Trump, she demonstrated mental toughness and agility. That her campaign was 鈥渁ble to build the plane as they were flying it the first five weeks is very impressive,鈥 he said.
However, because of the extraordinary circumstances in June and July of President Joe Biden鈥檚 bungled debate with Trump, the first attempted assassination of Trump, Biden鈥檚 decision to step down, and Harris鈥檚 smooth ascension to the top spot, the compressed timeline of the election means that many voters don鈥檛 yet have a real sense of who Harris is, and what she stands for, Kristol said.
Typically presidential candidates are vetted over months as they go through primaries, debates and interviews, he noted.
The election could come down to the voting patterns of white college-educated women versus white college-educated men, Kristol said. A found a gender gap among independents, with 51% of women supporting Harris to 36% for Trump. He held a 7 percentage point advantage among independent men, the poll found.
鈥淭he gender gap is a big thing. Trump has put it on steroids, so to speak. It looks like it could be bigger in this election than it鈥檚 ever been.鈥 Kristol speculated that women married to, or in relationships with Trump supporters, might secretly vote for Harris, just as 鈥渢here was a secret Trump vote in 2016鈥 that polling didn鈥檛 detect.
But Trump also is a survivor, said Kristol. Despite the attempted insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, federal indictments, and a guilty verdict in a New York City court on the charge of falsifying business records in New York, he has staying power. His political base shows no signs of abandoning him.
鈥淚 hate to say this,鈥 Kristol said, but should Trump retake the White House 鈥渋t would be one of the greatest comeback stories in American political history.鈥
After his speech, Gemma Stowell 鈥27 appreciated Kristol鈥檚 explication of what conservatism means in his view: preserving a liberal constitutionality. 鈥淚t changed my view on what conservatism is,鈥 Stowell said
鈥淜ristol occupies a unique place and has been there for a lot of big moments,鈥 said Varun Swaminathan 鈥26. 鈥淭he fact that he鈥檚 throwing his support behind Harris says a lot about old school conservatism.鈥
The speaker series, which began Tuesday with a talk by legal scholar Sherrilyn Ifill, features 10 speakers, including Vice President Mike Pence, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., and polling expert Harry Enten 鈥11. Jennifer Harris, a former special assistant to the president and international economics aide on the National Security Council and National Economic Council in the Biden administration, is the next speaker, on Oct. 10.
The series is open to the public. Tickets are free with registration. For some events, all seats have been reserved, but there is a waitlist and online viewing is available.
